Simpson’s Paradox and Thinking Rationally in Venture Capital
notes.willrobbins.org
Decision making in venture capital relies heavily on probabilistic thinking and difficult-to-compare historical data. The heuristics are too rough and the feedback loops are too long. Most of the time correlation does not imply causation. You can’t distinguish “A causes B,” “B causes A,” and “C causes both A and B.”
Simpson’s Paradox and Thinking Rationally in Venture Capital
Simpson’s Paradox and Thinking Rationally in…
Simpson’s Paradox and Thinking Rationally in Venture Capital
Decision making in venture capital relies heavily on probabilistic thinking and difficult-to-compare historical data. The heuristics are too rough and the feedback loops are too long. Most of the time correlation does not imply causation. You can’t distinguish “A causes B,” “B causes A,” and “C causes both A and B.”