Fed policy interview

What is going on with the Fed and interest rates? Are we headed into a recession?

Here’s what an expert — someone who managed $10B+ in bonds — sent me about the Fed:

Kicking off my new newsletter platform with a screenshot interview.

I didn’t want to post this one on Twitter and LinkedIn because 1) it’s a little bit political. I’m just the messenger, but that often doesn’t matter online. And 2) it’s cringe to post content without sharing the source, even if the author specifically grants permission.

He believes that political pressures led to feet-dragging when rates should have been raised, and now, too late, it’s so sudden that the credibility of such an important institution has been diminished.

That said, he is not too too bearish on the economy. He’s expecting a slow down, but would not be surprised if this is the worst for the markets.

The classical definition of “recession” is two quarters of negative growth. Fundamentals are solid, but one must be wary of the varying colloquial definitions of “recession”.

That’s all for now. Please do forward to friends, who can subscribe at notes.willrobbins.org.

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